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More Political Rumblings

So, now that I’ve devoted a few hundred words to whine about how politics is shaking out, let’s talk about how this could all go and what we can do about it.

  1. Biden Wins, Trump Concedes

Let’s say that the courts refuse to intervene on Trump’s behalf or that his lawyers lose once they’ve made their case that the election was run illegally and is hopelessly unrecoverable.  Trump makes a concession speech, maybe magnanimous, maybe not, but in January, Joe Biden is sworn in as President of the United States.  Our experience is very much like the 2000 election, and we have a relatively peaceful handover of power, even with all of the bitter, but justified, recriminations that will go with it.

I don’t see this as a lock in any way.  There are just too many things coming to light to let me believe the courts won’t get involved or won’t find at least a few things that need correction.  I wouldn’t be surprised if there aren’t threats or outright violence against judges involved in these cases.

I don’t see Trump willingly giving up while there is still a glimmer of hope, but I don’t think he will refuse to leave the White House when confronted with election results certified by Congress and adjudicated by the courts.  Say what you will about the President, he follows the law.

What will Trump’s supporters, down to the individual citizen do?  I expect there would be mass demonstrations.  They may be more provocative than the Tea Party movement was, but I don’t see riots.  If the Republicans keep the Senate, there will likely be investigations, hearings, and gridlock on appointments to the courts and such, much like we saw during the Obama years.

I’ll believe that this one is happening when the courts start disappointing Trump.

2.  Recounts, Court Actions, and a Trump Victory

In this scenario, President Trump is able to squeak out victories in enough of the remaining states to get to 270.  He can do this by shining light on Democrat shenanigans at the polls, demanding recounts in close races and fighting like a cornered rat when new votes are found in the back of some guy’s Buick, and by forcing the states to follow their own election laws through the courts.

Biden and his minions will, of course, scream to heaven about voter suppression, judicial overreach, and conspiracy theories.  There will be “mostly peaceful” demonstrations in the usual places, with the usual crimes, done by the usual suspects.  The wild card there will be whether the President, now that the election is over, will continue to keep the gloves on.

Look for this one when the courts start quoting Bush v Gore and start making the states follow their own laws, especially those that deal with mail-in ballots, ballot mailing/delivery deadlines, and ballot verification.

3. The Election Gets Thrown to the House.  Trump Wins

The ballot counting in some states may be so compromised that their slates of electors are not accepted.  Perhaps Biden and Trump split the country right down the middle and neither gets to 270.  Either way, nobody has a majority of the electoral votes, so we get to watch as the 12th Amendment is exercised.

In this scenario, I see Trump winning.  The Republicans are going to retain a majority in more state delegations than the Democrats.

A Trump victory in the House would be dependent, however, on Republican Representatives toeing the party line and going to the mat for the President.  Republicans who barely won their 2020 election, especially those in districts that historically elect Democrats, are going to be the weak link here.  If they think they’ll lose their own jobs in 2022, will they vote to re-elect Trump?

This is also where we could see an awful amount of horse trading for votes.  “I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine” is an understatement when you think about what a Representative could demand in a state delegation that’s close to even between the two parties.

This is the one situation I could see going ugly, early.  During the run-up to the vote, there will be tremendous pressure brought upon members of Congress.  The Democrats would remobilize their street troops, shutting down large cities and trying to intimidate influence members of Congress.

There would likely be violence.  Maybe it’ll just be rioting as we saw during the summer, maybe it’ll be more targeted against individuals or groups.  And I could see violence met with violence if it spreads or if Republicans see their Congresscritters in danger.

I’d expect this to happen when we start seeing courts and Secretaries of State start throwing out the vote counts from some of the states.

4.  What Can We Do?

OK, now we have what I think are the three most likely scenarios.   What do we do to get to where we want this to go?

First, and I cannot believe I am saying this, we need to donate money.  Lawyers don’t come cheap, and good lawyers who are willing to take the heat that fighting for the Trump campaign is going to bring are hideously expensive.  We need to open our wallets and donate what we can to help the President.

If you’re worried that Biden will win this thing, then Republican control of the Senate is even more important.  That control currently depends on the results of runoff elections in Georgia.  Donate here or here to the Republican senatorial campaigns in Georgia.  If you’re in Georgia, make sure you get to the polls in January.

Second, we need to get involved.  Get in touch with your folks in Congress and make sure they know, in no uncertain terms, how you want them to act and vote on this.  If you want your Senator to get on the TV and vociferously defend the President, they need to know that.  If you want your Representative to vote to reelect the President, if it gets that far, then they need to hear from you now.  Send emails, write letters, visit their office, or just stand outside their office with a cup of coffee in one hand and a cardboard sign in the other.

Be polite, but be firm.  They need to know what we want them to do.

Finally, we need to hang together.  This is a marathon, and we’re only at mile 20.  We have to keep each other going, look out for each other as this gets uglier and uglier, and make sure that every one of us is still pushing 100% when we cross the finish line.

Picture of the Day

Yeah, it’s the Kentucky Primary.  My wookie suit is fully combed out and wrinkle free, and my bow-caster has been cleaned, oiled, re-assembled, and passed a function test.

What are you doing for your country today?

Psychological or Just Not Stupid?

Over at Time, Justin Frank opines that the reason that a lot of Republicans have failed to support the candidacy of Mitt Romney is psychological in nature.  You see, we rubes can’t take the complexity of someone like Romney who can change his mind about issues instead of staying true to core values.  We yearn for someone simpler, read stupider, who will emulate our anti-intellectual political leanings.  We fear that which is hard to think about and is different from us, and let me tell you, brothers and sisters, Romney is different from us, or at least me. 

I’m not talking about his wealth or religious beliefs.  So long as he gained his money honestly, or at least legally, I don’t care.  As for his religion, so long as he doesn’t try to make me follow his beliefs, and those beliefs don’t harm anyone but Mitt, then I also don’t care.

Listen up sparky, I don’t like Romney because of a couple of things:  Romneycare and gun rights. 

Every swinging Richard in the Obama administration has admitted that Obamacare is based at least in part on Romney’s similar program in Massachusetts.  Romney was at the helm when that commonwealth decided it was OK to force everyone to get health insurance and to make sure that everyone gets their yearly proctological exam on the public tab.  Basically, us proles can’t be trusted to make our own decisions about our lives, so Uncle Mitty made those decisions for us.

Next comes gun rights.  Go ask Weer’d and JayG about how they feel about the gun laws in Massachusetts.  At least with Obama we have the devil we know and the Republican party won’t feel an obligation to close ranks around a Romney administration effort to curtail my rights.

And if Romney has such a low opinion of my right to keep and bear arms, how low on his priority list is not infringing my rights to speech, press, religion, a fair trial, and all of the other things we have fought both for and over since the 1700’s?

I want a thinker in the White House.  I want someone who understands the responsibilities of the office and the limits on its power.  I want someone who’s actually held a job and knows what it’s like to have to work for a living.  I want someone who respects my rights and the rights of every other citizen.

And from what I’ve seen, Romney’s not that guy.

So, Dr. Frank, please take your condescending drivel somewhere else and try to figure out the psychology of an ideology that believes that citizens shouldn’t be allowed to make their own decisions about healthcare, self-defense, or whatever else makes people feel all bad-squishy inside.  I’ll be here in fly-over country preparing to vote against Romney in the primaries and looking at 3rd party candidates if he should get the nomination.

Thought for the Day

During the 2012 campaign, when President Obama and his supporters start chanting “Yes we can!” or “Yes we did!”, someone should heckle with “Oh no you didn’t!”, head bob and all.  And when they get really obnoxious, we should go with “I wish you would!”.

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