Over the past couple of days, I’ve noted an increase in violence against ICE and its agents.

First, there was the shooting incident in Texas, where a police officer was injured. Several people have been arrested for their roles in the attack, but the shooter is still at large.

Next, we have an attack on ICE agents by a mob in San Francisco. When cameras pick up “Stay away from my gun!”, you know that things are very close to getting out of hand. Luckily, nobody was seriously hurt, including the folks who thought that clinging to a moving vehicle was some sort of personal political statement. This time, all they got was road rash, but imagine the outrage of one of them ended up with Michelin stamped across their sternum.

There have been other incidents in the past few months, but these two seem to show an element of escalation on the part of the ‘protesters’.

One can draw a line between these incidents and the rhetoric of Democrat leadership. The Red Guard isn’t going to go anywhere without direction. Using speeches, social media posts, and shrill tantrums to provide that guidance gives Democrats the cover of the 1st Amendment when the inevitable “How did we get here?” questions come up after something horrific happens.

So, what’s the point? ‘Protests’ like this aren’t going to change policy. Conspiracy and physical attacks certainly aren’t, either. For that, you need to get butts off the couch and out into the streets in large numbers.

I think, and I really do hope I am wrong, is that this is just the first couple of levels in an attempt to cause something horrific. The left seems to be looking for their ‘Kent State’ moment.

A semi-spontaneous shapshot of an attractive female crying over a body, a highly edited video of federal agents or police shooting ‘peaceful protesters’, or the staged weeping of someone’s grandma after the little ragamuffin is shot or run over while trying to assault federal agents can all be the nucleus of a real campaign to get the Trump administration to back down on immigration.

Once they have that, they can plaster the faces of the fallen all over social media, tee shirts, and protest signs. If the Democrats can put a face, especailly a young, attractive face, on this cause, then their politicians can use that as a cudgel against the government. True mass protests, mainly staffed with gullible idiots but heavily salted with truly useful idiots, might just spook Trump and middle America the way that the 2020 riots did.

They don’t need a crushing victory out of all this. They just need to move the needle enough to take back Congress in 2026, then leverage that and continued outrage after continued outrage to retake the White House in 2028.

In an age of cameras everywhere, any slip by an ICE agent or police officer is going to be manipulated and broadcast for maximum impact. Weepy reaction videos can go far when they’re backed up by members of Congress raging at the heavens over the injustice of it all.

However, this can also be a tool for the administration. Bodycam footage of any incident should be put up for mass distribution as soon as possible. This isn’t 1968 or 2020,, and the Democrats don’t have absolute control of information dissemination anymore. Use of social media by the Right has been quirky and countercultural in the past few years, but it’s also become a serious way to circumvent the stranglehold Democrats have on traditional media. The government may have to truly embrace that when Little Joey or Little Jennifer get shot while trying to kill ICE agents and the co-members of their semi-autonomous anarcho-sydicalist commune take to TikTok to express their well-rehearsed outrage and sadness.

When the “”Kent State” moment happens, the only way to show that the folks who got shot caused it will be by putting footage from every possible angle out. Main Street needs to see unedited truth, or they’ll fall for what K Street shows them.

Three years ago, the forces of the Russian Federation, on orders from the dictator Vladimir Putin, violated the borders of Ukraine with an aerial and ground assault. At the time, I gave the Ukrainians a few weeks, at best, before they were forced to capitulate. I wasn’t cheering for the Russians, but the numbers difference between the two nations, both in military equipment and in manpower, led me to believe that Russia would be able to steamroll its way at least through Kyiv.

I was overjoyed to be wrong. After soundly defeating the Russian airlift into Kyiv, the Ukrainians first held their own, then were able to take back territory in quick, coordinated strikes at key Russian positions. Wise purchases of western gear and training before the war, followed by a flood of western aid since, combined with the will and strength of the Ukrainian people, kept the Russian wolf at bay.

Since then, however, the war has been a meat grinder.

An entire generation of young men and women on both sides is being slaughtered, not to mention the civilians who have suffered and died due to Putin’s criminal methods. War crimes reminiscent of the worst days of the Yugoslav wars happen on a regular basis. While Ukraine has been able to hold the line in most places, and even advance in some unexpected directions, Russia is spending the lives of its young men like water in order to slowly wear down Ukrainian defenses and make progress in critical parts of the front. “The cost of a mile” should have died in 1918, but is alive and well in 2025.

Now, support for Ukraine balances on a knife’s edge. Ukrainians, no matter how brave and dedicated they are, rely on a steady influx of aid from Europe and the United States. The United States is questioning how that aid is spent, not without cause. Even the Ukrainian government admits that pilferage of materiel and funds accounts for a massive portion of what’s been provided.

President Trump, for better or worse, has begun shuttle diplomacy between Ukraine and Russia. His methods, and especially his rhetoric, leave something to be desired, but his goal to end the killing in a way that both sides can live with is to be commended.

Neither side, on its own, will be able to achieve its war aims. Russia can continue to treat the blood of her children and the treasure of her nation as grist for the mill, but for how long? Ukraine, no matter how just her demands that her territory be restored, will never be able to accomplish this militarily.

This war and what has happened in Russia since Putin took power breaks my heart. When I travelled and worked in the former Soviet Union, every young person dreamed of freedom and wealth. Everyone had a hustle, everyone had a plan. Now, I see all of that zeal to make their lives and their nations better squandered through a dictator’s dreams of restoring a corrupt, inhumane empire.

Let us all pray that the war is settled, at least for now, in a way that both sides can live with, and that peace of a kind returns to a land I know to be beautiful and a people I know to be gracious and brave.

In the end, a way must be found to push Russia out of the land she has stolen. Let us also pray that this can be achieved, in time, through peaceful means.

Until then, Slava Ukraini.

So, now that I’ve devoted a few hundred words to whine about how politics is shaking out, let’s talk about how this could all go and what we can do about it.

1. Biden Wins, Trump Concedes

Let’s say that the courts refuse to intervene on Trump’s behalf or that his lawyers lose once they’ve made their case that the election was run illegally and is hopelessly unrecoverable.  Trump makes a concession speech, maybe magnanimous, maybe not, but in January, Joe Biden is sworn in as President of the United States.  Our experience is very much like the 2000 election, and we have a relatively peaceful handover of power, even with all of the bitter, but justified, recriminations that will go with it.

I don’t see this as a lock in any way.  There are just too many things coming to light to let me believe the courts won’t get involved or won’t find at least a few things that need correction.  I wouldn’t be surprised if there aren’t threats or outright violence against judges involved in these cases.

I don’t see Trump willingly giving up while there is still a glimmer of hope, but I don’t think he will refuse to leave the White House when confronted with election results certified by Congress and adjudicated by the courts.  Say what you will about the President, he follows the law.

What will Trump’s supporters, down to the individual citizen do?  I expect there would be mass demonstrations.  They may be more provocative than the Tea Party movement was, but I don’t see riots.  If the Republicans keep the Senate, there will likely be investigations, hearings, and gridlock on appointments to the courts and such, much like we saw during the Obama years.

I’ll believe that this one is happening when the courts start disappointing Trump.

2.  Recounts, Court Actions, and a Trump Victory

In this scenario, President Trump is able to squeak out victories in enough of the remaining states to get to 270.  He can do this by shining light on Democrat shenanigans at the polls, demanding recounts in close races and fighting like a cornered rat when new votes are found in the back of some guy’s Buick, and by forcing the states to follow their own election laws through the courts.

Biden and his minions will, of course, scream to heaven about voter suppression, judicial overreach, and conspiracy theories.  There will be “mostly peaceful” demonstrations in the usual places, with the usual crimes, done by the usual suspects.  The wild card there will be whether the President, now that the election is over, will continue to keep the gloves on.

Look for this one when the courts start quoting Bush v Gore and start making the states follow their own laws, especially those that deal with mail-in ballots, ballot mailing/delivery deadlines, and ballot verification.

3. The Election Gets Thrown to the House.  Trump Wins

The ballot counting in some states may be so compromised that their slates of electors are not accepted.  Perhaps Biden and Trump split the country right down the middle and neither gets to 270.  Either way, nobody has a majority of the electoral votes, so we get to watch as the 12th Amendment is exercised.

In this scenario, I see Trump winning.  The Republicans are going to retain a majority in more state delegations than the Democrats.

A Trump victory in the House would be dependent, however, on Republican Representatives toeing the party line and going to the mat for the President.  Republicans who barely won their 2020 election, especially those in districts that historically elect Democrats, are going to be the weak link here.  If they think they’ll lose their own jobs in 2022, will they vote to re-elect Trump?

This is also where we could see an awful amount of horse trading for votes.  “I’ll scratch your back if you scratch mine” is an understatement when you think about what a Representative could demand in a state delegation that’s close to even between the two parties.

This is the one situation I could see going ugly, early.  During the run-up to the vote, there will be tremendous pressure brought upon members of Congress.  The Democrats would remobilize their street troops, shutting down large cities and trying to intimidate influence members of Congress.

There would likely be violence.  Maybe it’ll just be rioting as we saw during the summer, maybe it’ll be more targeted against individuals or groups.  And I could see violence met with violence if it spreads or if Republicans see their Congresscritters in danger.

I’d expect this to happen when we start seeing courts and Secretaries of State start throwing out the vote counts from some of the states.

4.  What Can We Do?

OK, now we have what I think are the three most likely scenarios.   What do we do to get to where we want this to go?

First, and I cannot believe I am saying this, we need to donate money.  Lawyers don’t come cheap, and good lawyers who are willing to take the heat that fighting for the Trump campaign is going to bring are hideously expensive.  We need to open our wallets and donate what we can to help the President.

If you’re worried that Biden will win this thing, then Republican control of the Senate is even more important.  That control currently depends on the results of runoff elections in Georgia.  Donate here or here to the Republican senatorial campaigns in Georgia.  If you’re in Georgia, make sure you get to the polls in January.

Second, we need to get involved.  Get in touch with your folks in Congress and make sure they know, in no uncertain terms, how you want them to act and vote on this.  If you want your Senator to get on the TV and vociferously defend the President, they need to know that.  If you want your Representative to vote to reelect the President, if it gets that far, then they need to hear from you now.  Send emails, write letters, visit their office, or just stand outside their office with a cup of coffee in one hand and a cardboard sign in the other.

Be polite, but be firm.  They need to know what we want them to do.

Finally, we need to hang together.  This is a marathon, and we’re only at mile 20.  We have to keep each other going, look out for each other as this gets uglier and uglier, and make sure that every one of us is still pushing 100% when we cross the finish line.