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10 Years On

Today marks the 10th anniversary of the invasion of Iraq in 2003.  In the years we fought, rebuilt, and bled in Iraq, we lost 4,486 good men and women.  31,928 additional Americans were wounded in the conflict.  Our coalition allies also bled and died in the conflict, and thousands of Iraqis were killed and wounded.  We shelled out trillions of dollars in the endeavor, money which we either didn’t have and had to borrow or that could have been spent somewhere else.  We have seen many examples of how brave, resourceful, and capable our people in uniform are, and we owe this generation of young men and women a debt that we will never be able to repay.

The stated goals of the war, as I understood them in 2003, were to remove the Baathist Saddam Hussein regime from power, bring the dictator and his cronies to justice, and help the Iraqi people rebuild and hopefully discover western style democracy.

Well, the first two goals were met and met pretty quickly.  Resistance to the invasion and the end of the regime came within weeks of the first tank crossing the line of departure.  Saddam, his family, and his cabal of sadists were either hunted down and killed or captured, tried, and punished.

Did we accomplish the third goal?

In the aftermath of the invasion, every whacko who could raise bus fare headed to Iraq and got his jihad on, making the job of reconstruction and democratization harder by an order of magnitude.   I cannot imagine the difficulty of building a civil society and all that comes with it while also keeping your head on a swivel for ambushes and bombs.  It’s hard to convince a population without a cultural history of democracy that they should participate in their government when you’re still having to make night time raids to capture guys who want to murder people who don’t agree with them.

Iraq has had several national and regional elections.  Fears, which I shared and expressed, that the country would shatter haven’t been born out, at least yet.  I don’t know if the average Iraqi is any better off today than he was 10 years ago, but I hope someone more informed on that aspect than I am will fill us in on that one.  Iraq is a quasi-democracy, but has definite teething problems as it finds its way forward.  Maliki isn’t exactly George Washington, and I expect that he will leave power over his dead body.  Iran definitely benefited from the resurgence of the Shia elements of Iraqi society, and will be meddling in Iraqi politics for years.

I guess the main question is this:  Is the United States better off in March 2013 than we were in March 2003 when it comes to Iraq?  Was the removal of Saddam Hussein, the sort-of democratization of Iraq, and the killing of jihadists who were drawn to Iraq like a moth to a flame worth the cost in blood and treasure?  I honestly don’t know.  I think it’s going to take years for the events that March 2003 set in motion to come to full fruition, and I fear that we will have to look back in another decade to see what the Iraq War has wrought.

That being said, I am forever grateful to the men and women who gave up years of their lives, lived and worked in deplorable conditions, and sometimes gave of their blood and lives in this conflict.   I need no space of years to see and appreciate what they did, and I am humbled by their dedication to the country.

That Was Quick

The last U.S. truck to leave Iraq hasn’t even been to the wash rack yet, and the opening political salvos of the Iraqi civil war have been fired.

 

Iraq’s Shiite-led government issued an arrest warrant Monday for Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, the country’s highest ranking Sunni official, on terrorism charges.

al-Hashemi’s Sunni Iraqiya faction has threatened to leave the coalition government, so I guess the next logical step is to neutralize, either politically or physically, its leadership.

Here are my prognostications:

  • Continued political wrangling, including arrests and forced defections, over the next month or so
  • Targeted assassinations of Sunni and Shiite leadership by spring
  • Terrorist attacks against religious demonstrations and significant monuments (mosques) by April
  • Full on civil war by June

I also think the Kurds will use the fighting between the Shiite and Sunni sectors to finally make their defacto independence official, which will go a long way to piss off Turkey.  Saudi Arabia won’t stand by and watch their Sunni brothers get the snot kicked out of them by a numerically superior Shiite population.  If the Saudis send in troops, then Iran will go from covert support of the Shiites to actually sending in their own troops.  Whether the fighting stays in Iraq or not will depend on whether or not Iran wants to try to bite off the Shiite area of Saudi Arabia.  Riyadh isn’t equipped to stand up to Tehran in any form, so we would probably get dragged in if Iran actually invades Saudi Arabia.

Who’s going to win the Iraqi Civil War of 2012?  In Iraq, it’ll be the Shiite and the Kurds.  The Shiites are too numerous and well-supported by Iran for the Sunnis to prevail.  Iran and the Shiite factions have been working together for years to plan and prepare for the day after we left.  I don’t think the Sunnis have really ever recovered from losing power in 2003.  They certainly don’t have as active an international sponsor as the Shiites.  The Kurds will probably stay out of the fighting and if they’re smart will go dormant when it comes to Iran and Turkey until the dust settles to their south.

Internationally, I see Iran benefiting the most from all this, unless they invade Saudi Arabia.  If they can keep the fighting local to Iraq, especially if they can keep their support covert, then the Obama administration will have no credible reason to get involved.  If they publicly send in their military, or if they and Saudi Arabia lock horns, even Obama will have to sit up and take notice.  In the end, Iran will own Iraq in the same way that they own Syria.  Maybe they don’t claim the territory outright, but they’ll definitely be the ones pulling the strings.

Any way this plays out, Iraq is about to get at least as chaotic and bloody as it was before the surge in 2007.  I hope I’m wrong.