I don’t know which was scarier, the speech or the Congress cheering it. He evoked Lincoln. Whenever a president is gonna get us into serious trouble, they always use Lincoln. — 2010
President Obama is making noises, but is definitely working from a weak position. My gut tells me that, if we get involved, we are going to send a speed bump force. That is, something that isn’t meant to stop the Russians, but is meant to act as a trip wire to bring whatever force we can muster to bear when they are run over. I have mixed feelings on whether or not we should be involved. We made something of a moral commitment to the Ukraine when she gave up her nuclear arms, even if the actual commitment was to go to the U.N. to seek aid. At the same time, whether or not we have a national interest compelling enough to mix it up with the Russians is very debatable. I’m just hoping that we have wiser leadership than our ancestors have had in the past, because this could be a lot worse than other wars if we go wrong.
And please don’t think that I find fault with President Obama alone. The way that Presidents Bush Senior and Clinton acted toward the Soviet Union as it fell and Russia in its aftermath created a lot of resentment. “We won the Cold War” told the Russians that they lost, and that they deserved the poverty, chaos, and corruption that followed. The fact that NATO not only survived the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, but also expanded into Eastern Europe played right into those who want to exploit the parts of Russian culture that look at the rest of the world with at least a touch of paranoia. Rubbing their noses in it was counter-productive, and led almost directly to the rise of Putin.
Bush the Younger didn’t help with the public scorn that his administration heaped on “Old Europe” over the invasion of Iraq. Even his “I looked into his soul” attitude toward Putin did nothing to improve relations or even make our relationship with Russia clear. He also failed to clarify our relationship with the countries on Russia’s periphery, which encouraged places like Georgia to think we would stand with them if Russia got frisky. This was a belief that they found to be wrong at the worst possible moment.
President Obama has maybe 24 hours to get in front of this. If he’s going to oppose Putin, be it diplomatically, economically, or militarily, he needs to do it and do it now. Going to the U.N. or the E.U. will just mean that the debate will be over about 48 hours Putin guarantees the security of East Ukraine. He also needs to articulate to the American people, clearly and effectively, why any involvement in Ukraine is necessary. In the event that he decides that showing the flag with a naval task force or sending of ground forces to Ukraine is necessary, he needs to get authorization from Congress.
A lot of people are comparing February 2014 to August 1914, including me. But even with all of the parallels that we can find, I think this is closer to 1938. An enemy that we thought we had bested 20 years ago is flexing her muscles again. She is picking a fight with a small country on her border that we have good relations with. And we need to decide now, not next week, whether we need to play the part of Great Britain to Ukraine’s Sudetenland. The Russian Anschluss has begun, and we need to either pick a side or get out of the way.