When something is as opaque as the Obama administration, you have to watch for things to happen beyond the veil of its control.  When you see what they do in public, you can try to make educated guesses as to what they do in private and what motivates them.

Today, Attorney General Holder will be announcing his resignation.  Holder is one of the last advisors that President Obama brought with him in 2008 that still draws a government paycheck.   He’s been a fixer and hatchetman for the administration for years, but has decided it’s time to go.  News sources say that he plans to stay in his position until a replacement can be confirmed by the Senate.

The timing is interesting.  The fact that it comes now, when the Senate is up for grabs, indicates that the President and his staff do not feel confident that Harry Reid and the Democrats will be able to keep a majority or even a 50/50 split (Vice-President Biden would vote in a tie vote on a nominee, and one would assume that he would side with his own party).  Since the filibuster rules for presidential nominees have been gutted by Mr. Reid, all they need is 51 votes to get the nomination through.  So, if the President wants to get a nominee for AG through with the current rules and the current Senate make-up, he has to do it before the next crop of Senators is sworn in come January.

Now, a lame-duck Senate can confirm a nominee, but that might mean that the new AG would take a gut shot when it comes to credibility afterward.  If it’s perceived that a nominee was confirmed by people who had already lost their seat, he or she might be hamstrung in dealing with the Congress.  My guess is that the President will push for the Senate to come back and confirm his nominee prior to the election in November.

That, of course, would complicate things for Senators in tight elections, especially Democrats.  One of the tactics the party has chosen this election cycle is for candidates in tight races to distance themselves from the President.  Now, while they are in a political bar brawl, they will need to return to Washington for a few weeks, at the call of the President, to go through confirmation.   That will give their opponents a lot of unchallenged face time with voters, and will give them more targets to shoot at as Senators, especially in committee hearings and during floor discussion, make statements in favor of or against the nominee.

Could forcing through a confirmation fight now, so close to a heavily disputed election, hurt the President’s party as it tries to maintain control of the Senate?  I guess we’ll have to see, but it can’t be a good thing, unless he’s playing the long con and will nominate someone so off the wall that the Democrats in the Senate can safely fight him on it and then show that they’re not lapdogs to the President.

I’m interested in seeing how many federal judges and justices, who were appointed by the Carter and Clinton administrations, go the same way.  The more of that we see, the more we can assume that the Obama administration doesn’t think it’s going to hold the whip hand with the Senate much longer.

So, to AG Holder, thank you for your service these six years, no matter how much we have disagreed.  I look forward to the civil suits from those you have harmed, and I look forward to your appearance in front of multiple Senate and House committees without the cloak of office protecting you.

As for the rest of you, it’s time to pay attention again.  This is going to be interesting.